Economic Dashboard

Built using the PatchTST architecture, this model analyzes multiple metrics that affect stock market performance. Given the nature of our model, the first week of our prediction is more accurate than near the end of our Prediction.

Built using the PatchTST architecture, this model analyzes multiple metrics that affect stock market performance. The Prediction's provided are intended for educational purposes, speculation, and curiosity only, and SHOULD NOT be used as investing advice. This Prediction is for the Dow Jones over the next month

In order to have reference on how the model preforms, along with how the models Prediction changed, a past prediction from a week ago is displayed here. The red line represents the actual values, and the dotted line is the Prediction.

In order to have reference on how the model preforms, a past prediction from a week ago is displayed here. The red line represents the actual values, and the dotted line is the Prediction.

In order to have reference on how the model preforms, a past prediction from 40 days ago is displayed here. The red line represents the actual values, and the dotted line is the Prediction.

In order to have reference on how the model preforms, a past prediction from 40 days ago is displayed here. The red line represents the actual values, and the dotted line is the Prediction.

This graph shows the combined strength and direction of price trends over time. Positive values (above zero) indicate upward momentum while negative values signal downward momentum. Crossovers between positive and negative territories may highlight potential trading opportunities, while extended periods in either territory confirm trend strength.

This graph shows the combined strength and direction of price trends over time. Positive values (above zero) indicate upward momentum while negative values signal downward momentum. Crossovers between positive and negative territories may highlight potential trading opportunities, while extended periods in either territory confirm trend strength.

This graph displays the difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, a key economic signal tracked by the Federal Reserve. Positive values suggest future economic growth, while negative values (below zero) may indicate approaching economic downturns. Financial experts use this "term spread" to calculate recession probability twelve months ahead, making it one of the most watched indicators for market timing decisions. When the line crosses from negative to positive territory, it often signals significant economic transitions.

This graph shows the difference between long-term interest rates (10-Year Treasury) and short-term interest rates (set by the Federal Reserve). When the line is rising, it typically means the economy might grow in the future; when falling or below zero, it might signal economic troubles ahead. This indicator helps investors understand if the Fed's current actions (raising or lowering short-term rates) are in line with what markets expect for the long-term economy. Think of it as measuring the gap between what the Fed is doing now versus what investors believe will happen years from now.

This graph shows how much it costs to borrow money in the United States. When the line goes up, borrowing becomes more expensive for everyone - affecting credit cards, mortgages, and business loans. The Federal Reserve adjusts these rates to help control the economy - raising rates to slow inflation or lowering them to boost growth when the economy slows down. Changes in interest rates directly impact your wallet - determining how much you pay for loans and how much you earn on savings. When the line changes direction on the graph, it often signals major shifts in economic conditions that affect jobs, housing prices, and everyday costs.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage offers stable monthly payments spread over three decades, making homeownership accessible to more families. When this line drops, housing becomes more affordable and buying activity typically increases; when it rises, potential buyers often delay purchases. Changes in this rate directly affect how much house people can afford - even a 1% increase can reduce buying power by about 10%. This indicator is closely tied to broader economic conditions, including Federal Reserve policy, inflation trends, and investor sentiment, making it a key economic barometer followed by homebuyers, sellers, and financial markets alike.

This graph shows the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time each week. As a "critical economic indicator," Initial Claims provides timely insights into labor market health, with high numbers suggesting economic slowdown and low numbers indicating stability. It's one of the ten components in the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators, making it especially valuable for predicting economic turning points. This indicator responds quickly to changes in business conditions, often signaling economic trouble before other metrics show problems, giving investors and policymakers early warnings about potential market shifts that could affect interest rates, housing demand, and overall financial stability.

Retail Sales are the total amount of money spent by consumers at stores and food service establishments across the country each month. This data, collected by the Census Bureau and published in FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Database), measures purchases at businesses like grocery stores, car dealerships, restaurants, and online retailers. Economists closely watch retail sales as they reflect consumer spending, which drives about 70% of the U.S. economy. When retail sales increase, it generally signals economic growth and confidence, while decreases might indicate economic troubles.

The unemployment rate is the percentage of people in the labor force who don't have jobs but are actively looking for work. This figure, tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and available in FRED, doesn't count people who have stopped searching for jobs or those working part-time but wanting full-time employment. Economists and government officials monitor this rate closely as it reveals how easily people can find jobs and indicates the overall health of the economy. A rising unemployment rate often signals economic troubles and may prompt government action, while a falling rate typically suggests economic improvement. Changes in this number can affect everything from interest rates to government spending plans and business hiring decisions.

Construction job listings measure the number of open positions in the building industry, including residential homes, commercial buildings, and infrastructure projects. This data, tracked by employment agencies and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicates the health of the construction sector and often serves as an early indicator of future economic activity. When construction job listings increase, it typically signals growing investment in new buildings and infrastructure, which can lead to more hiring across related industries like manufacturing and retail. A decline in construction job openings might suggest economic uncertainty, tighter credit conditions, or reduced demand for new building projects. These listings are particularly important because the construction industry tends to be more sensitive to changes in interest rates and economic conditions than many other sectors.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change in prices consumers pay for a basket of common goods and services like food, housing, clothing, transportation, and medical care. This data, collected monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, serves as the primary way to track inflation in the economy and helps determine how much the cost of living is changing for average households. When the CPI rises significantly, it means your money buys less than before, potentially leading to reduced purchasing power and changes in consumer spending habits. The Federal Reserve closely monitors CPI data when making decisions about interest rates, as controlling inflation is one of their main responsibilities. Many financial arrangements like Social Security benefits, rental agreements, and some wages are adjusted based on CPI changes to help maintain people's standard of living as prices change.